Supply Chain Pressures and Geopolitical Impacts on the Lighting Sector

The lighting industry continues to navigate a period of heightened uncertainty, as ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, begin to exert more visible pressure across global supply chains. 

Drawing on recent LIA member feedback, Supply Chain Group discussions, and wider construction sector insights, a consistent picture is emerging: while the full impact has yet to be realised, pressures are building across costs, supply chains, and market confidence. 

Rising costs and supply chain strain 

The most immediate and widely reported impact is a combination of cost escalation and supply disruption, which are increasingly interlinked. 

Members are experiencing sustained increases across: 

• Raw materials, including copper, aluminium, steel, plastics and resins 
• Energy-intensive production inputs, driven by rising oil and gas prices 
• Freight and logistics costs, with surcharges and container costs increasing 

Recent member feedback highlights the scale of pressure, with: 

• 7-10% price increases on purchase orders, rising to 20% in some categories such as brass 
• Continued upward pressure despite already significant increases in late 2025 

At the same time, supply chains are becoming more difficult to manage: 

• Extended lead times for key materials and components 
• Shipping delays and rerouting, including diversion away from the Red Sea 
• Disruption to upstream supply, particularly in metals and petrochemicals 

While availability remains relatively stable for now, much of the stock currently in the system reflects pre-conflict conditions, meaning the full impact is likely to emerge over the coming months. 

In practice, businesses are increasingly under pressure to decide whether to absorb rising costs or pass them on. For manufacturing and importing operations operating on just-in-time models, this presents a particular challenge; without flexibility, there is a risk of increased cashflow strain as businesses consider stockpiling to mitigate delays and further price increases. 

Softening demand and reduced confidence 

Alongside supply-side pressures, members are also reporting weakening demand driven by economic uncertainty. 

Evidence from across the sector shows: 

• Projects in the Middle East being delayed or paused, particularly in key construction markets 
• Reduced short-term order pipelines, with expectations of limited new business in the near term 
• Lower consumer confidence, particularly affecting discretionary markets such as decorative lighting 

This creates a difficult dynamic for many businesses: 

• Costs are rising 
• Sales are softening 

This dual pressure is proving particularly challenging, especially for those already operating on tight margins. 

An evolving and uneven picture 

A key theme across member feedback is that impacts are not uniform or fully predictable. 

Members highlight: 

• Limited clarity behind some supplier price increases, making them hard to explain to customers 
• Concerns that some increases may be precautionary or opportunistic, rather than solely cost-driven 
• Ongoing volatility in key material markets, particularly metals and plastics 

These pressures are further shaped by external factors, including: 

• Government interventions such as steel tariffs and quotas 
• Global competition for materials, including stockpiling 
• Continued fragility across petrochemical supply chains 

The result is a complex and evolving environment, where multiple pressures are interacting simultaneously. 

Outlook: delayed impact, prolonged recovery 

Across industry discussions, there is strong alignment that the situation is still unfolding. 

Key expectations include: 

• The full impact has not yet been felt, due to supply chain lag effects 
• Disruption is likely to persist beyond the immediate conflict period, with recovery potentially taking 6-12 months or longer 
• Cost pressures are expected to remain elevated in the near to medium term 

At the same time, businesses are adapting by: 

• Increasing focus on cost control and operational resilience 
• Maintaining product quality despite cost pressures 
• Responding to shifting demand, including greater interest in energy-efficient solutions 

LIA perspective: collaboration is critical 

In response to these pressures, a consistent message is emerging from across the sector: clear communication and collaboration are more important than ever. 

Industry calls include: 

• Greater transparency around price increases and cost drivers 
• Improved forecasting and earlier sharing of demand and supply requirements 
• Continued engagement with government to ensure policy supports, rather than exacerbates, supply chain challenges 

The LIA is actively supporting this agenda through a number of practical steps: 

• Engaging with government and industry bodies – including ongoing dialogue through forums such as EURIS, the Construction Leadership Council, Make UK, the Industry Supply Chain Group (including The LIA, BEAMA, BCA, EDA and ECA), Plus Group and the British Energy Efficiency Federation (BEEF), as well as direct engagement with government departments, to ensure supply chain issues facing lighting are understood and reflected in decision-making 
• Working with European partners, including LightingEurope, to share intelligence and ensure alignment where supply chain and regulatory impacts intersect across markets 
• Using LIA platforms to surface and address these challenges, including technical committees, task forces, webinars, newsletters and industry events such as TECH-X, where supply chain pressures and resilience are being discussed at a sector level 
• Capturing and sharing real-time market intelligence through The LIA Barometer and Quarterly Quantitative Surveys, giving contributing members access to aggregated, ground-level industry insights. These outputs support benchmarking, help track emerging trends, and ensure LIA advocacy is informed by real operating conditions across the sector 
• Coordinating member insight through groups such as GPAC and The LIA Council of Management, helping to shape a clear, evidence-based narrative that can be fed into policy discussions 

We also encourage members to continue feeding their experiences and insights into LIA surveys and groups, to ensure we are accurately representing the real and evolving challenges across the sector.